Finanzkrise: Nächste Verstaatlichungsrunde

[Kreittmayr]

"A colleague here at the Hoover Institution spoke recently with a senior,
and Democratic, member of the California congressional delegation. In the
last week, she said, her office had received roughly 15,000 telephone calls,
letters, and emails. How many favored the bailout?

"Ten."

Das sieht nach einer sauberen Marktbereinigung aus. John Allison von BB&T wird sich freuen.

[Baudouin de Billancourt]

Original von Konrad Grimm
Sonst: Schulden abbauen.

Diesen Ratschlag verstehe ich nicht ganz. Sicher hat das Abbauen von Schulden immer seinen Sinn, aber ich vermute (aber das habe ich nicht durchdacht, deswegen frage ich), dass persönliche Schulden allerhöchstens durch Inflation betroffen sein werden - wenn überhaupt in irgendeiner Weise.
Folgendes würde ich nie praktizieren oder jemandem empfehlen, aber theoretisch kann es sich doch lohnen, im Moment Sachgüter auf Kredit zu kaufen, sofern das Geld später an Wert verliert, nicht?

[Kreittmayr]

Date: Monday, September 29, 2008
From: John Lewis
To: Congressman David Price of North Carolina
Subject: Reply from Congressman David Price

Dear Congressman Price;

Thank you for your frank and fast response. I should be clear. I am opposed to bailing out these firms. But what I am more opposed to is the entire political culture of regulation--including manipulation of interest rates, Sarbanes-Oxley, changes in accounting rules, the Community Renewal Act, and a scad of others--that has fostered this mess. Two weeks ago no politician in Washington knew this was coming. Suddenly, after several all-nighters, they have enough knowledge to grant a quarter of a trillion dollars to a government bureaucrat, to dole out as he sees fit--and to promise another half-trillion, should his actions make it worse.

Meanwhile, the country focuses on the allegedly evil CEOs, "speculators" (read "investors"), and loan initiators who were earlier damned for NOT making loan money available to high-risk borrowers. I remind you that the Community Renewal Act penalizes firms for not making such risky loans. Now, suddenly, those firms are villified for following the law. Well, that's government--it faces no penalties, except a periodic popularity contest, and can contradict itself with impunity.

Most of all, I resent the politicians and punditrs who are claiming, contrary to evidence, that it is now "impossible to get a loan" on Main Street. It is impossible to borrow millions on Wall Street, but regional banks that made prudent investors are not in danger--unless the government further coerces them.

The government is not saving Main Street--it is nationalizing it. Is it not true that, with the takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government now holds paper on tens of millions of American mortgages? What does granting American citizens "equity positions" and "profits" in companies seized by the government mean, except communism? Don't we condemn Hugo Chavez for nationalizing oil companies?

I will also recall, as a student of economics, that the Great Depression was caused by a string of obnoxious legislation, and was then cruelly extended by massive government interference. Contrary to prevailing, but long-discredited, opinion, the government did not save us from that mess. It created, and prolonged, it. Twenty years earlier, JP Morgan ended the panic of 1908 in a few weeks--bankers in 1929 could not so act. Today, Morgan would have been jailed for the private pooling of assets he arranged. Is it not true that AIG was told by the Attorney General of New York that it would not be allowed to sell sound assets in order to save the holding company? Who is to blame for the collapse of a huge, and largely sound company, excpet those who forbhid its executives from acting?
You will forgive me if I have no respect for the likes of Senator Schumer, who started a run on a bank with his irresponsible statements and then claimed virtue for them, or Senator McCain, up to his neck in the Keating scandal, or Senator Dodd, whose reputation was on the rocks until this crisis saved him, or Senator Obama, who had not a clue at a White House meeting last week, and then went on-script before the press to cover his ignorance. You will please forgive me if promises of "oversight" by these PR men do not instill confidence.

I much more respect the CEOs who have spent their years in the business, and who face actual consequences for their errors. They do not have access to hundreds of billions of dollars of other people's money--and they do not expect their stockholders to approve busines plans that cannot foretell whether they will lose three-quarters of a trillion dollars, or get some of it back in five or twenty years. They do not have their hands in the pocket of every person who produces in this country.

The truly brave politicians are those who recognize that the government is largely to blame for this mess, and should start emergency repeal of regulations now. Only this can allow responsible CEOs to start making decisions based on sound economics, rather than fear of breaking a law.

Sincerely;
John Lewis

Dr. John David Lewis
Visiting Associate Professor of Political Science, Duke University

[Konrad Grimm]

Original von Baudouin de Billancourt
Folgendes würde ich nie praktizieren oder jemandem empfehlen, aber theoretisch kann es sich doch lohnen, im Moment Sachgüter auf Kredit zu kaufen, sofern das Geld später an Wert verliert, nicht?

Setzt reine Inflation voraus. Wer sagt Dir, dass wir nicht mindestens eine Teil-Deflation bekommen? Oder erst Deflation, dann Hyperinflation, was ein sehr realistisches Szenario ist - erst Credit-Crunch, dann schließlich die Flucht des Staates in die Hyperinflation. Wir sehen doch momentan schon eine asset-deflation - Immobilienpreise runter, Aktien runter, Zinsen runter, Rohstoffe runter, Edelmetalle runter. Wenn du bereits in der Deflation stirbst, hilft dir die Hoffnung auf die Inflation nichts.

[Konrad Grimm]

Original von Kreittmayr
Das sieht nach einer sauberen Marktbereinigung aus. John Allison von BB&T wird sich freuen.

Saubere Marktbereinigung... naja, doch eher Sintflut.

Unser ganzes System lebt von Krediten. Credit makes the world go round (Randbemerkung: Kredit - credere - glauben. Ja, genau, unser System funktioniert NUR, weil alle GLAUBEN, dass es funktioniert. Deswegen reden momentan die Politiker alle davon, dass wir Vertrauen brauchen. Aber irgendwann ist eben jedes Schneeballsystem, auch der globale Finanzkapitalismus, am Ende). Brechen die Kredite weg - and that's what happens - stürzt das Kartenhaus "Realwirtschaft" in sich zusammen.

[Kreittmayr]

Der Weltuntergang ist schon mehrmals ausgefallen.

[Baudouin de Billancourt]

Original von Konrad Grimm
Setzt reine Inflation voraus. Wer sagt Dir, dass wir nicht mindestens eine Teil-Deflation bekommen?

Das ist schon richtig - daher meine großen Bedenken bei diesen Praktiken - aber wieso rätst Du zum Schuldenabbau, was unbedingt Deflation voraussetzen würde, um sich zu lohnen?

[Konrad Grimm]

Original von Baudouin de Billancourt
Das ist schon richtig - daher meine großen Bedenken bei diesen Praktiken - aber wieso rätst Du zum Schuldenabbau, was unbedingt Deflation voraussetzen würde, um sich zu lohnen?

Vorsicht ist besser als Nachsicht. In der Deflation das Eigenheim in die Zwangsversteigerung zu verlieren ist schlimmer, als die Opportunitätskosten durch Verzicht auf einen leverage-Sachkauf.

[Baudouin de Billancourt]

Edit: danke, akzeptiert.

[Oliver von Palm]

Welches Wirtschaftssystem schlägst du vor, Boiger?